Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Py Win Rankings - Week 17

One last week of numbers before the end of the season, and it's looking to me like this year is going to stand out on both ends of the spectrum.  It looks like a virtual certainty that Edmonton will finish as the second unluckiest team of all time, and now it's looking like Calgary will be the luckiest 14 or 15 win team in history as well.  Other teams have finished further above their Py Expectation, but only Baltimore in 1995 has finished with 15 wins and been more than 2 wins above expectation.  It's far from empirical in the least, but it's worth nothing that Baltimore won the Grey Cup that year.

The rankings themselves haven't changed at all, without even any interesting projection changes.  That's of course because as the season goes on, each game affects the totals by a smaller percentage than previous games, so things are mostly stable by now.  Based on the gaps between teams at this point, I don't anticipate any changes next week either, other than perhaps BC moving up a spot if they win big and Toronto loses.

Next week after we have the final numbers, I'll take a look at each team and how historically similar teams have fared in the playoffs and future seasons.

Luckiest Team: Calgary (+2.3 wins)
Unluckiest Team: Edmonton (-3.4 wins)

Biggest Jump: Toronto and BC (+0.3 projected wins)
Biggest Drop: Saskatchewan (-0.3 projected wins)

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